Russia

Russian cellphone companies will soon offer the Apple iPhone 3G. Now the iPhone is nothing new to half-million Russian consumers who’ve paid $1,000 purchase earlier generation devices on the “grey” market, plus another $100 to unlock the darn thing. This actually makes the former Soviet nation one of the biggest iPhone markets outside the U.S.

Let’s hear it for capitalism!

Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin accused the U.S. of “wagging the dog” and claims,

“U.S. citizens were indeed in the area in conflict [and] were acting in implementing those orders doing as they were ordered, and the only one who can give such orders is their leader.”

The “leader”, of course, is President Bush. Furthermore, Putin also claims the motivation behind the U.S. instigation of conflict was the political positioning of a presidential candidate (John McCain, I suppose). Of course, the PM didn’t offer any evidence whatsoever to back up his ludicrous assertions.

The truth is, Putin is backpedaling in light of concerns expressed by China and other Asian nations over tension in the region. Unable to shore-up any international support for its actions, the PM is pointing fingers, attempting to shift blame to the U.S.

You’re ridiculous, Mr. Putin, and the U.S. is laughing at you!

As expected, Russia defied the denunciating cries from the U.S. and E.U., and officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which threatens to dismantle a democratic, pro-West ally. In response to what amounts to Western whining, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s said,

“We’re not scared of anything, including the prospect of a Cold War…”

His bravado demonstrates a newfound Russian confidence in their position of power on the world stage. They recognize that after five-plus years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. is stretched to the limit. Furthermore, the E.U. (and NATO for that matter) doesn’t have the balls to jump into an engagement with Russia. So, the Western powers are talking a good game, but diplomacy without a “big stick” to back it up is nothing more than words and saber-rattling. Recognizing the West’s emptiness, as illustrated by Konstantin Kosachev, head of Russia’s international affairs committee, told the Interfax news agency, that Western criticism of Russia’s actions will

“remain at the level of political declarations, which will quickly be consigned to the historical archive.”

Still, Russia is feeling a bit of an economic pinch due to its role in the present conflict. Per the WSJ, investors are shying away from Russian investments, pushing share prices to two-year lows:

“The benchmark RTS stock index finished the session on Tuesday 4.2% lower, at 1579.12, its lowest point since late 2006. It has also eroded the value of the ruble, which closed at 29.86 against a managed dollar-euro currency basket, down 1.5% since the start of the war early this month.”

Remember, this only represents a temporary shift and results from investors’ uncertainty. If the West doesn’t start backing-up its rhetoric with action, Russia will bounce back and become even stronger.

Not surprisingly, Russia continues to defy the international community by reneging on the ceasefire agreement and refusing to pull-out of Georgia. In fact, Russia is digging in, building ramparts around tanks and posing sentries on a hill in central Georgia about 30 miles from the capital of Tbilisi. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice observed,

“From my point of view … the Russians are perhaps already not honoring their word.”

Perhaps? Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, made it pretty clear what they intended to do when he reported that although Presiddent Mr. Medvedev had signed the cease-fire agreement and ordered its implementation, Russian troops wouldn’t withdraw until Moscow is satisfied its forces have taken the necessary effective security measures to protect the interests of the breakaway provinces.

So what are the Russians up to? It’s plain top see that Russia is simply diverting attention while it solidifies its hold on the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Earlier today, Russian army units and separatist fighters in Abkhazia took control of 13 villages and the Inguri hydropower plant. So far, Abkhaz officials couldn’t be reached for comment. Furthermore, Lavrov said Russia would also strengthen its peacekeeping contingent in South Ossetia. (translation: Russia will absorb South Ossetia).

Still, from his ranch in Texas, President Bush said,

“A major issue is Russia’s contention that the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia may not be a part of Georgia’s future. These regions are a part of Georgia and the international community has repeatedly made clear that they will remain so.”

I think the Russians have a different idea, Mr. President. They’ve made it very clear by their words and actions that Georgia can forget about South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

And with each day that passes, Russia tightens its grip. Are you watching America? E.U.? Georgia’s next!

MORE: Hot Air; Flopping Aces; Little Green Footballs; Neoconservative? Moi?; Political Pistachio; Right Wing Nut House

An South Ossetia gunman robbed two U.N. officials at gunpoint, taking their SUVs, while Russian soldiers watched. This is what the situation has deteriorated to, as the Russians refuse to withdraw from the Georgian city of Gori. On top of that, Russia is obviously allowing Ossetia irregulars to operate freely within the Georgian borders despite stating they would execute anyone found marauding.

(I guess government sanctioned marauding is okay)

After clobbering Georgia for five days the Russians declared a provisional cease-fire. Agreeing to a deal brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the Russian’s confirm Georgia’s sovereignty, but not its territorial integrity. (Which means that Russia may decide at some future date to amend the sovereign country’s borders.) Georgia also agreed to the deal with a change regarding status talks for the territories.

The clear winner here are the Russians who gave the U.S. a black eye as we more-or-less just stood by and watched these events unfold. I remember a year ago as the Russians began getting chummy with Venezuela’s Chavez, pondering a new cold war; it looks like we have it.

And if all this wasn’t bad enough, we have this ridiculous statement by Virginia Governor Tim Kaine (h/t: Hot Air):

It was a bad crisis for the world. It required tough words but also a smart approach to call on the international community to step in. And I’m very, very happy that the Senator’s [Obama's] request for a ceasefire has been complied with by President Medvedev. (emphasis mine)

This is one of those “Howard Dean scream” moments. Incidentally, at the time Kaine made this statement, the Russians were still firing on Georgia. So much for your VP chances, Mr. Governor.

Idiot!

Russia is now an invasion force, occupying the town of Gori, about 60 kilometers from Tbilisi, the capitol of Georgia. In the western part of the country, Russia crossed the border out of Abkhazia and into the Georgian town of Zugdidi. Russian troops have also taken Senaki, Georgia’s most modern military base. Although he Zugdidi and Gori occupations couldn’t be confirmed independently, it appears that Russia has effectively cut the country in half. President Bush pressed Moscow to accept an immediate cease-fire and pull back its troops and conceded that this appears to be an attempt to unseat Georgia’s president, Mikhail Saakashvili.

Appealing for help from the West, Saakasvilli said, “We are in the process of the invasion, occupation and annihilation of an independent, democratic country” and that Russia’s ultimate goal is regime change. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin confirmed a desire for regime change in a statement, earlier today:

“To quote Ronald Reagan: Somoza [Nicaragua's former U.S.-backed president, Anastasio Somoza] is a scoundrel, but he’s our scoundrel, and we’ll protect him” … “The world has changed since the Cold War” and the U.S. won’t be able to protect its new “scoundrel”, Saakasvilli.

Well, you can’t get any plainer than that! Is the West going to sit idle while Russia erases a democracy?

MORE: Hot Air; Right Wing Nuthouse; RedState; Flopping Aces

Despite pulling out of South Ossetia to avoid an all-out war with Russia, the Georgians are finding themselves facing a second Russian-backed assault in another separatist territory. Early Sunday morning, Abkhazia, located in Northern Georgia on the Black Sea, launched an attack on Georgian troops with the aid of Russian heavy bombers and 4,000 Russian troops. It also appears that Russian warships off the Georgian coast are attempting to enforce an economic embargo and have already turned two supply ships away.

It appears that Russia is acting as an opportunistic agent in this crisis and attempting to achieve a quick, decisive victory over Georgia’s democratic ambitions by absorbing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Their maintenance of “peacekeepers” in the region for the past decade has provided a convenient excuse for this intervention. The timing of the attack to coincide with the Olympic Games in Beijing has given them sufficient cover from international scrutiny for the first couple of days. If they can bring this crisis to a quick end, they may just keep the initiative.

Incidentally, in the early 1990s, Abkhazia backed by Russian volunteers fought a brutal war for independence after an equally brutal Georgian crackdown which drove out 250,000 ethnic Georgians (approximately half the population).

Quid pro quo?

MORE: Little Green Footballs; Power Line; Right Wing Nuthouse

UPDATE: Russia says it’s ready to end hostilities as Georgia states its readiness to withdrawal troops from South Ossetia. While the U.N. Security Council met a fourth time (whooptidoo!), Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin stated that Moscow is “ready to put an end to the war”. However, Russia doesn’t appear to be willing to agree to an immediate refuses to observe a cease fire.

The Georgian parliament has declared war against Russia for the next 15 days as the civilian death toll in the breakaway republic of South Ossetia surpasses 2,000. For the third time in two days the U.N. Security Council has met to discuss the situation, but (typically) have not been able to agree on a solution; however, several nations including the U.S. and U.K. have called for a cease fire. President Bush spoke to Russian President Madvedev and warned that their bombing campaign marked “a dangerous escalation” of the crisis and called for an immediate halt to hostilities. Medvedev said only a complete withdrawal of Georgian troops from South Ossetia would ease tensions, and further stipulates that Georgia sign an agreement never to use force in its separatist territories again.

So, what’s the deal?

South Ossetia is a mountainous province located in northern Georgia that shares its northern border with the Russian republic of North Ossetia.

South Ossetia enjoyed broad autonomy within Soviet Georgia and first claimed independence in 1989. It has run its own affairs without international recognition since breaking away from the Tbilisi-based Georgian government during a bloody 1991-1992 conflict that killed more than 1,000 people and displaced tens of thousands.

Authorities held a referendum in 1992 proclaiming the province’s independence, but it went unnoticed by the international community, leaving the region in limbo. South Ossetians voted overwhelmingly for independence in a second referendum in November 2006.

Russia has peacekeepers in South Ossetia, but Tbilisi accuses them of siding with the separatists. Since coming to power in 2004, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to bring South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, back under Georgian control.

Russia formally recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia as parts of Georgia, but it sides with their separatist leaders in disputes with the Georgian government and has granted many of their residents Russian citizenship. (h/t: AP)

So, what’s at stake?

Georgia is a staunch U.S. ally and emerging democracy. They’ve sent troops to Iraq to fight the insurgents. They also aspire to join NATO and the EU. Of course, Moscow opposes both of these goals. Its pro-Western stance has angered Russia as Moscow considers the entire region within its own sphere of influence.

I believe it’s important to support Georgia. They’re an important ally and the steps we take right now will demonstrate our level of commitment. Still, we recently supported Kosovo’s independence despite Russian objections; are we really in a position to challenge South Ossetia’s claim to independence although they’re likely to follow Moscow?

MORE: Hot Air; Neoconservative? Moi?; Political Pistachio

The Russian government-propped Izvestia newspaper reported that crews from Russian strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons have surveyed sites in Cuba for possible refueling stopovers. If the Russians made such a move it would once again bring Soviet nuclear weapons within 90-miles of the U.S. Gen. Norton Schwartz, the presumptive Air Force chief of staff, warned that regardless of an actual payload, the presence of nuclear-capable planes in Cuba would be “something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America.”

Of course, the Soviet government denies the Izvestia report, calling it “disinformation” and a “media hoax”. However, considering the newspaper’s government affiliation, what are the chances it could get away with printing such a volatile story? A more likely explanation is that Russia is sending a subtle warning to the U.S. against the missile defense shield we’re building in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia today and now stands as the world’s newest country. Administered since 1999 by the United Nations, the new nation is banking on US and EU support to bolster its failing economy; the US and EU are expected to grant diplomatic recognition of the new state.

Kosovo is also hoping the US and EU recognition will prevent the escalation of hostilities between the new state and rivals Serbia and Russia, who are not the least bit happy about the current situation. Russia considers Kosovo’s move for independence to be a provocation that may entice similar action from the former Soviet Union’s southern rim minorities. Serbia isn’t recognizing Kosovo independence, referring to it as “a false state.” Russia stands solidly behind Serbia in condemning Kosovo’s secession and is whining to the UN Security Council.

Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, “Kosovo is proud, independent, sovereign and free” and parliament speaker Jakup Krasniqi said, “Kosovo is a republic — an independent, democratic and sovereign state”. However, I think it’s important to note, and no one is mentioning this in any of the news reports, the new nation of Kosovo is primarily Muslim. Remember, Islam will accept no government other than Islam and I predict that any attempt at democracy in Kosovo will be short-lived.

::: MORE :::

Hot Air is the first report I’ve found considering the potential role of Islam in the new independent Kosovo.

ComingAnarchy reports with photos of a Kosavar independence celebration in Stuttgart.

Webloggin also observes that the majority of ethic Albanians in Kosovo are Muslim and that Kosovo’s prime minister, the former rebel leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army, is reported to have ties to Osama Bin Laden.

Russian President Validimir Putin, speaking with the European Union in Mafra, Portugal, once again criticized the U.S. antimissile system to be deployed near Russian borders in Poland and the Czech Republic. Comparing the antimissile system to the Cuban Missile Crisis (what?!?), Putin said,

“Analogous actions by the Soviet Union, when it deployed rockets on Cuba, provoked the Cuban missile crisis.”

In response, State Department spokesman explained,

“There are some very clear historical differences between our plans to deploy a defensive missile system designed to protect against launch of missiles from rogue states such as Iran, and the offensive nuclear capability of the missiles that were being installed in Cuba back in the 1960s that were targeting the United States. I don’t think that they are historically analogous in any way, shape or form.”

Still, if one country has the capability to launch a nuclear strike against another country whose strategic nuclear capability is deterred by a antimissile defense system; isn’t this synonymous with actually placing “defensive missiles” near the borders of another country?

I suppose, Putin’s comment is accurate from the Russian point-of-view. It really depends on the way one views Soviet motives in the 1960s and whether the missiles they placed on Cuban soil were defensive or strategic.

From the Russian point-of-view, is the U.S. antimissile defense system truly defensive or is it a strategic weapon?

It’s all a matter of perspective.

Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively dissolved his country’s government by dismissing Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov. This paves the way for Putin to hand-pick his successor after he steps down next year. The odds-on favorite to replace Fradkov was ex-KGB general Sergei Ivanov, who has never indicated he’d run for president; however, in a surprise move, Putin nominated Viktor Zubkov, the head of Federal Financial Monitoring Service, and a close ally of the Russian president.

Although this move paves the way for Zubkov to run for President, the current thinking is he won’t. There’s speculation that this is a play by Putin to retain power himself, either at the end of his term or some later date. Currently, the Russian constitution limits the president to two consecutive terms, and some are suggesting that by nominating Zubkov, Putin is orchestrating a “place-holder” to govern during a temporary period of time in which he won’t be president.

Another possibility is that Putin intends to maintain control by pulling the strings behind the scene after he steps down.

Watch closely…

Russia returned to its former Col War posturing with the deployment of 14 bomber aircraft on patrols outside Russian airspace earlier today, marking the permanent return to a Soviet-era practice.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said,

“…strategic missile carriers, support planes, and tanker aircraft took off from seven Russian airfields in various parts of the country at 00:00, Moscow time, [2000 GMT Thursday] on August 17. Combat duty has begun.”

Putin indicated the resumption of flights was a response to security threats posed by other military powers, and this new (old) posturing is permanent. Explaining Russia’s resumption of strategic flights, Putin told reporters at joint military exercises with China and four Central Asian states in Russia’s Ural mountains:

“In 1992, Russia unilaterally ended flights by its strategic aircraft to distant military patrol areas. Unfortunately, our example was not followed by everyone.”

“Flights by other countries’ strategic aircraft continue and this creates certain problems for ensuring the security of the Russian Federation.”

Putin’s revival of this policy gave a new generation of U.S. fighter pilots an opportunity to experience a former Cold War ritual, when a Russian bomber flew over a U.S. military base on the Pacific island of Guam. The Russian pilots “exchanged smiles” with U.S. pilots who had scrambled to track it, said Maj. Gen. Pavel Androsov, head of long-range aviation in the Russian air force. “Yesterday we revived this tradition, and two of our young crews paid a visit to the area of the [U.S. Pacific Naval Activities] base of Guam,” he said.

This is certainly an interesting turn of events, though not surprising. Watch closely.

According to Washington Post:

President Vladimir Putin welcomed Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez for talks at the Russian presidential retreat outside Moscow on Thursday, saying economic affairs and military-technical cooperation were on the agenda.

Amid media speculation that Chavez would sign a major weapons deal while in Russia, Putin said bilateral relations were developing and praised the opening earlier Thursday of a Venezuelan cultural center named for the South American revolutionary hero Simon Bolivar.

Nice.

What’s on the Chavez shopping list? Russian submarines! They’ve already purchased $3 billion in arms from Russia, including 53 military helicopters and 24 SU-30 Sukhoi fighter jets.

Although not quite as close as Cuba, Venezuela is still a little too close for comfort. Chavez brokering arms deals with our pals in Russia is sure to raise some eyebrows; especially with comments like these…

“We must defeat imperial hegemony that is imposed on us or we head toward barbarism; we either defeat imperialism or imperialism destroys the world,” … “The empire must understand that it cannot dominate the world.”

I suppose President Bush would be the Hegemon?

::: UPDATE :::

June 29, 2007-3:01pm: Venezuela to enhance economic ties with Russia. Chavez hailed cooperation between two countries in such spheres as power engineering, military cooperation and scientific research. Chavez says there are huge gas fields in the Caribbean, about 200 trillion cubic meters and “discussed with President Putin the possibility of organizing a meeting of specialists, so that they could assess projects [Chevez] has outlined.”

June 29, 2007-9:14pm: More on Chavez military aspirations: A nuclear Venezuela?