Despite pulling out of South Ossetia to avoid an all-out war with Russia, the Georgians are finding themselves facing a second Russian-backed assault in another separatist territory. Early Sunday morning, Abkhazia, located in Northern Georgia on the Black Sea, launched an attack on Georgian troops with the aid of Russian heavy bombers and 4,000 Russian troops. It also appears that Russian warships off the Georgian coast are attempting to enforce an economic embargo and have already turned two supply ships away.
It appears that Russia is acting as an opportunistic agent in this crisis and attempting to achieve a quick, decisive victory over Georgia’s democratic ambitions by absorbing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Their maintenance of “peacekeepers” in the region for the past decade has provided a convenient excuse for this intervention. The timing of the attack to coincide with the Olympic Games in Beijing has given them sufficient cover from international scrutiny for the first couple of days. If they can bring this crisis to a quick end, they may just keep the initiative.
Incidentally, in the early 1990s, Abkhazia backed by Russian volunteers fought a brutal war for independence after an equally brutal Georgian crackdown which drove out 250,000 ethnic Georgians (approximately half the population).
Quid pro quo?
MORE: Little Green Footballs; Power Line; Right Wing Nuthouse
UPDATE: Russia says it’s ready to end hostilities as Georgia states its readiness to withdrawal troops from South Ossetia. While the U.N. Security Council met a fourth time (whooptidoo!), Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin stated that Moscow is “ready to put an end to the war”. However, Russia doesn’t appear to be willing to agree to an immediate refuses to observe a cease fire.
Tags: Abkhazia, democracy, Georgia, independence, Russia
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August 10, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Richard
I’ll bet you ten dollars that Russia makes moves to either conquer Georgia, or more likely, force certain political changes to decisively move Georgia into the Russian orbit.
This to me is the Sudetenland Crisis of 1938. Russia has made its first aggressive move to really test Western resolve. So far, 1-0 to Russia and tyranny.
The only way to stop this is to threaten to declare war.
I’m not crazy enough to take that bet! I think you’re absolutely right and the parallel to Sudetenland is accurate. The West is really gonna take it in the shorts over this one because we’re not prepared to back up any threat of war.