nK Waiting for Oil

July 5, 2007 in Korea, Politics | 3 comments

Pyongyang says it will shut down the Yongbyon nuclear reactor with the arrival of the first shipment of oil needed to operate its heat and electric power plants. The fuel was a condition for Pyongyang to implement the first stage of its denuclearization program. South Korea said it will begin delivering fuel oil to nK on July 14; the first shipment will be 5,000 to 10,000 metric tons. Seoul plans to deliver 50,000 metric tons of oil within 20 days. The U.S., Russia and China will follow with another 950,000 metric tons.

If Pyongyang comes through on its end of the deal, six-party talks on nK’s nuclear program could reopen when the oil starts flowing. A delegation of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to arrive in nK July 12-14 to monitor the closure of its nuclear facilities.

Japan was opposed to South Korea delivering the oil before Pyongyang shut down the reactor.

Japan has the right idea! This is typical Kim Jong-il: “I’ll do this, if you give me that.” When we comply, the previous statement becomes, “You did this, but I’m not going to do that now because…[insert some bogus insult].” Of course there will be international outrage and Pyongyang will remain aloof. Russia and China will have strong words, but won’t support actions against the rogue nK. There will be more compromise after nK “test fires” a couple of missiles and we’ll be right back to square one. This is Kim Jong Il’s modus operandi and it continues to be an effective strategy.

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